An eventful news year could boost subscriber engagement and retention for news publishers in 2024, even if it doesn’t drive conversion spikes like the ones seen in 2016 and 2020.
An uptick in retention could translate to healthy year-over-year subscription revenue growth for some publishers, but the question then becomes whether deferred churn will catch up to them heading into 2025 — and what they can do to mitigate it.
Toolkits spoke with a range of news and politics publishers and the majority believe election bumps and conversion spikes driven by news events are largely a thing of the past. As the market for news subscriptions matures, the “low-hanging fruit” of highly engaged news consumers has largely been harvested, publishers say.
“We’re not expecting a significant increase in conversions this time around,” said the chief executive of a U.S.-based politics publication.
Subscriber growth from this point is expected to be more incremental, driven primarily by the ability to steal share from competitors and attract first-time news subscribers.
“I believe we’re likely past the bump territory,” said Julia Beizer, chief digital officer at Bloomberg Media.
More news is good news for retention
Demand for news might be softening according to some measures, but periods of heightened interest still present powerful opportunities for publishers to demonstrate the value of their products and deepen and prolong relationships with their subscriber bases.
2024 looks set to be a busy year for global politics and international conflict, with wars persisting in the Middle East and Europe, and elections due to be held in 76 countries including the U.S. Publishers primarily hope to capitalize by driving retention rather than new subscriber conversions.
“We don’t expect to see a spike in conversions as we did in 2016, but we do believe existing subscribers are less likely to cancel in the runup to the [U.S.] election. That presents us with opportunities to show value and strengthen subscriber relationships,” said a subscription manager for a major U.S.-based news publisher.
“While we do plan on focusing on the election cycle this year with our coverage, our strategy will be more about leveraging that content to engage or re-engage both existing and former subscribers to either keep subscribers renewing longer or drive former readers to resubscribe,” said a senior revenue executive at another U.S.-based news and politics publication.
Churn concern
A key question for publishers is how long the benefits of an election-driven retention boost might last. Although subscribers might be less likely to cancel during an election year, some worry a retention-driven revenue jump could give way to a relative slump in 2025 as delayed churn catches up to them.
News publishers saw this dynamic at play when churn increased significantly after acquisition spikes in 2016 and 2020. At that point, many were converting new subscribers at a high enough rate to offset churn and keep subscriber volume growing. That might not be the case this time around, leading some publishers to wonder if a revenue boost this year will result in a flatlining in 2025.
Retention focus
Delayed churn is only an issue if it can’t be mitigated. To that end, some publishers say they’re preparing retention initiatives deliberately designed to keep subscribers engaged beyond the U.S. election and if interest in international conflict and geopolitics dwindles.
Some say that’ll be easier said than done, though, particularly for audiences with a more casual interest in politics. While previous U.S. elections have been followed by uncertainty about incoming administrations, there’s a feeling among some publishers that both candidates’ priorities are already relatively understood and that audiences will feel less compelled to follow closely as a result.
What about pricing?
Many publishers will likely lean on discounts and reduced rates to help mitigate post-election churn, but some say they’re attempting to take advantage of heightened engagement and interest by raising prices and/or locking subscribers into longer subscription commitments in the run-up.
Price hikes always risk triggering churn and reducing the overall size of publishers’ subscriber bases, but increases in average revenue per user can often result in greater revenue yield regardless. Despite talk of optimizing for revenue rather than subscriber volume, declines in paying subscriber bases are typically difficult for publishers to swallow, however, even when revenue is headed up and to the right.